In this video, I will explain you how to apply PERT and 3Point Application on a simple Project

Get 50% discount on our online course (links below)

04:44 – Probability Curve of the Project. Probability as a function of duration

Based on the optimistic, probable, and pessimistic duration of the activities, it is possible to determine the probable duration and standard deviation of the project.
The first step is to calculate all PERT/3Point estimates and standard deviations for all activities. In this example, these values have been determined. The method used for the calculation is not important. Anyway, we have the duration and standard deviation for all activities.

Step 1 – Project Duration @ 50%
Identify all the paths through the network and calculate their length. The path with the longest durations the critical path and should be considered further.

Step 2 – Standard Deviation of the Project
From statistics, we know that standard deviations cannot be added. Once we have identified the critical path, we know the standard deviation of the activities on the CP and we know from statistics that we cannot add standard deviation but we can add variances. Since the variance is the square of the standard deviation, we can add the variances of the CP and then take the square root to get the standard deviation.

Step 3 – Calculate the probabilities for different durations
Once we know the average duration (50% probability) and the standard deviation, we can use the normal distribution to determine the corresponding probability for every duration and create the corresponding S-curve. From this curve, we can select a duration and read from the graph the probability that the project will be completed in less than that duration.

More about our online courses:

Apply our Voucher for 50% discount of public price:


Project Management Basics
Learn the basics about projects and project management in this 14.5-hour course and get yourself a head start over your colleagues and peers

Fast Track to Earned Value Management
Get a quick overview of how earned value management works and how you can use it for your projects. Understanding EVM will give you a clear advantage over other project managers.

Quality for Operations and Project Managers
Quality is a very important issue in operations management but also in project management. Understanding the principles of quality, the tools and the applications will ensure that your projects are providing the expected quality and your stakeholders will be very satisfied.

Introduction to time value of money
Financial parameters are very import when considering the financial viability of the project. Understand the principle of time value of money, compounded interest and discover the main financial parameters that you can use to evaluate the financial performance of your project like PBT, ROI, NPV, and IRR.

Subscribe to this channel for more Project Management, Financial and Business content and leave a comment below if you have any questions.


Follow me on FB for more Project Management tips and tricks:

#PMP #ProjectManagement #DeCeusterAcademy

Welcome Back

Pick Up Where You Left Off